Trump or Harris: Who’s Worse for American Technology?
Between Trump and whomever—Harris presumably—it makes little sense to ask who is better for American technology. “Who’s worse?” is all we’ve got.
Trump first led and then followed the GOP into the protectionist camp. He and the GOP China hawks have manufactured an enemy from a rival. Ultimately, the trade sanctions that are starving American semiconductor leaders by shutting them off from the largest semiconductor market in the world are Trump’s fault, even though the Biden administration has been doing the work. Thanks to Trump and the Hawks, the Chinese, forced to roll their own rather than buying from us, every year make two years of progress as chip makers.
Meanwhile, the Dems do what they have been doing at least since the first Gulf War. Terrified of being called out as limp-wristed peaceniks by the GOP, whenever any Republican proposes a war—like on days that end with “y”—the Dems start up a rousing chorus of “Over There.”
The Dems have done the same with Trump’s trade war against China. The worst of the sanctions have been imposed since Trump left office; the most damage to the U.S. industry has been inflicted in the past couple years. It was under Biden and the Democrats that the U.S. decided to lavish some $50 billion, and counting, on last decade’s silicon technologies, while driving the Chinese into revolutionary new technologies such as graphene electronics.
It should be said for the Democrats that at least they appear to be insincere. Their sanctions come with no goals. They have set no standard China can meet to get the sanctions called off. They are the Seinfeld’s of sanctioning, waging a trade war about nothing. On the plus side, Kamala is perfect to play George.
Admittedly, the Democrats are in a tight spot. It hardly seems fair to ask America’s largest socialist party to be sincere in opposing the Earth’s largest socialist party. Besides, they don’t really need a foreign enemy to prompt them to nationalize America’s most important industry. It’s what they live for.
Also comfortable for Dems is this bizarre tactic of waging a trade war against ourselves by forbidding American companies to sell to China. The normal thing for the protectionist power would be for them to lock out our products. Instead, we do it for them. At least it’s a way to punish “corporate greed.”
Waging war on American technology aligns with the Dem priority of supporting Muslim terrorism against Israel and the West. Israeli subsidiaries and research labs of American companies host most of the advanced R&D done by U.S. tech leaders, making betraying Israel a Dem two-fer.
Worst of all, however, are Trump’s loyal followers who, in the manner of such folk, seek always to out-Trump, Trump. Trump sees sanctions and 100% tariffs as pressure points in a negotiation. We think that’s mostly a fool’s errand but at least he has an end point in mind. His followers just want to fight, the trade war a preface to the real war for which they relentlessly demand we prepare. What would preparations for war against a billion people 8,000 miles away look like?
We had hoped, as our title implied, to build a little suspense on the question. Alas, the answer is all too transparent. Amazingly, Trump is the most sober and sensible player in the game. In the lunatic asylum, the man who takes his meds is king.
Trump’s schtick is that he is a deal maker. A lot of his deals go bust. But on China, he has this going for him: he will at least be allowed to make a deal. “Only Nixon could go to China,” it was said, because his anticommunist credentials gave him cover. Today, only Trump could make a deal with China.
Experience suggests Trump’s deal would seek to increase American access to the Chinese market, not voluntarily surrender it as under the current regime. In the end, the whole effort would leave us somewhat worse off than we started, but with Trump at least there might be an end.
Advantage Trump.